It is neither peace nor normalization, but it took eleven years of negotiations led by the United States forIsraelis and Lebanese reach an agreement on the delimitation of their exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Why now? Because the lebanese economy is bloodless and that there is political will to resolve this conflict. “The dramatic economic situation in Lebanon weighed heavily in the balance,” said Amos Hochstein, American mediator of this agreement.
Lebanon has sunk into three-digit inflationpassing 3% in 2019 to 85% in 2020 and 155% in 2021. Politically, there was a small window of opportunity that the three parties – Americans, Lebanese and Israelis – chose not to miss. “France did not participate in the negotiations, but it did a lot of work in the home stretch, particularly with the Lebanese, so as not to miss this opportunity, which might not come again for a long time,” said a source familiar with the matter. . Indeed, the quasi-concomitance of the Israeli elections, the end of the mandate of Lebanese President Michel Aoun and the midterm elections in the United States risk upsetting the balance of power. This is also one of the arguments of those who, in Israel as in Lebanon, denounce this agreement.
Exploit the off-shore gas fields of Karish and Cana
The latter allows the two countries to exploit their off-shore gas deposits located in hitherto disputed EEZs, Karish for Israel and Cana for Lebanon. Concretely, in the dispute which represents an area of 860 km2, the Jewish State cedes more than 99% of what it considered to be its EEZ in exchange for which it will receive royalties paid by the operating company TotalEnergies on the revenues from the Cana deposit, entirely located in the Lebanese EEZ. The amount to be returned to the Israelis remains to be defined. “The Elysée’s diplomatic cell also intervened on this subject to guarantee TotalEnergies’ commitments to the Israelis”, underlines the same source. For its part, Lebanon which, at the beginning of 2021, had extended its claims to an additional EEZ of 1,430 km, waives 40% of its requirements.
Economically, Israel has a clear head start. The Israeli subsidiary of Energean, which last June installed its floating operating platform (FPSO) in Karish, will supply the Israeli gas network within a few weeks. Karish is estimated at 50 BCM (Billion Cube Meters), which is in addition to other offshore deposits already exploited in Israel. On the other hand, Lebanon is betting on the future. First, the potential of the Cana deposit is still unknown. And, it will take three to six years for Lebanon to exploit and receive the revenues from this gas field. Furthermore, the agreement with Israel stipulates that the Cana operating consortium cannot be composed or directed by a Lebanese company. Gold, this consortium brings together TotalEnergies (40%), Eni (40%) and the Lebanese State (20%), which took over the share of the Russian company Novatek, which withdrew in August. In turn, the Lebanese state could cede this place to Qatar, already associated with the French giant on its territory to develop the largest gas field in the world.
Economic-strategic deterrence
According to many Israeli and Lebanese experts, this agreement establishes a sort of economic-strategic deterrent. The proximity of the two deposits, the Israeli Karish and the Lebanese Cana, should prevent any inclination to attack each other. “The region will no longer be used as a pretext for military attempts (…) It will, on the other hand, be a place of potential profit for Lebanon”, explains to the Lebanese daily the Orient-The DayCharbel Skaff, energy expert.
As for the Israeli Prime Minister, Yaïr Lapid, he brandishes it as a major victory in the run-up to the elections of 1er november. He said it would “strengthen Israel’s security, inject billions of shekels into the economy and provide stability on the northern border”, which opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu strongly disputes. However, “the Israeli military establishment supported the negotiation process”, as the Israeli defense minister pointed out, Benny Gantz as well as Eliezer Marom, former Admiral Commander of the Israeli Navy.
“Another proof that this agreement is positive is that Israel and Cyprus, which have good diplomatic relations, have not yet reached an agreement for the Aphrodite offshore deposit”, underlines Michael Harari, former Israeli ambassador. in Cyprus. In this case, the positive resumption of the Israeli-Lebanese talks has recently revived the Israeli-Cypriot discussions and could also succeed, which, in the long term, would be positive for the supply of gas to Europe.
An agreement ratified before November 1
In Israel, this agreement must, in principle, be formally ratified before November 1, the date of the elections and Amos Hochstein is expected in Beirut during the week of October 24 for a formal signature. “But, the Israelis and the Lebanese can still backtrack or make sure that this agreement is not ratified. This agreement is great but it is complex and fragile,” remarks the aforementioned source. In any case, the Lebanese refuse the idea of a common signing ceremony for this agreement which does not say a word about the land border. However, this agreement must be registered with the UN, which underlines its importance. There remains an area of 4km2 maximum with hybrid status, but where the Israeli army will be able to continue naval patrols along the “line of buoys”, drawn unilaterally by Israel during its withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.
By Catherine Dupeyron, our correspondent in Jerusalem
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Gas in the Mediterranean: Israel and Lebanon sign an agreement – Teller Report
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