Marouane El Abassi: Tunisia is paying dearly for the cost of inaction (Download the full presentation)

“The year 2023 will be complicated. The situation is very, very, very difficult, because of an economic situation exacerbated by the global recession. We must increase production and reach an agreement with the IMF is to get down to attracting FDI, to revive growth. The Governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia, Marouane El Abassi, who does not want to be “in the emotion, but in the truth of the figures” wanted to share his findings and analyzes with the Tunisians, during a briefing held Wednesday morning at the Bank’s headquarters. “The delays experienced in recent years in the initiation of reforms, investment in the exploration of oil fields and the energy transition to solar energy, and other salutary measures, are making Tunisia pay dearly today for the cost of non-action,” he lamented.

” Prices have reached high levels and will not go down in the coming months. We are heading towards double-digit inflation (11%), he warned. The most important thing is to preserve the exchange rate and the volume of foreign currency reserves, and not to enter into bad expectations. »
Regarding the increase in the key rate of the BCT, by 75 points, bringing it all at once to 8%, Mr. El Abassi explained that the dosage is based on multifactorial analyzes and takes into account important expectations to take into account. The effect, he recalled, is not immediate, but will be measured after five to six quarters.

Regarding the State budget for 2023, the Governor of the Central Bank stressed that a financial gap of 1.5 to 1.7 billion dollars is to be filled. Discussions with various donors are continuing to mobilize the necessary resources.

As for the IMF, he explained the postponement of the examination of the file by the board of directors of the Fund, by a certain number of prerequisites that had to be resolved, in particular the promulgation of the finance law for the year 2023, the revision of Law No. 89-9 of February 1, 1989, relating to the governance of public enterprises and establishments, and others. Wanting to be reassuring about the outcome of the discussions with the IMF, the Governor underlined that the most significant is the stabilization of Tunisia’s rating (slightly improving) and the most difficult is the macroeconomic framework with a precise programming of the various actions. to undertake.

In the introduction, the Governor of the Central Bank reviewed the macroeconomic situation (marked by twin deficits and observed stagflation), analyzed growth prospects, as well as the state of public finances. He also presented the 2nd strategic plan 2023 – 2025 of the BCT and the major projects initiated. (Download the presentation).

Humbly, Marouane El Abassi acknowledged: “Today, we don’t have answers to all the questions. But, we are working on it. »