War in Ukraine: before the Russian offensive in the Donbass, the deluge of fire

No need to resort to divination: the offensive announced by Vladimir Putin against the Donbass will be brutal. Ukrainians who know this well are urging civilians to flee what will become the battlefield where the outcome of the war launched on February 24 could be decided.

Since the announcements from the Russian command, we have witnessed a fairly effective shift of efforts, observes one of the French officers who scrutinize the course of the fighting. He and his comrades are grouped together within multiple cellsone of which associates the Directorate of Military Intelligence and the Center for Planning and Conduct of Operations of the General Staff, or within the Observatory set up by the Center for Doctrine and Education of the command (CEDC).

Means deployed for a land maneuver

According to one of these specialists, one of the first lessons of this war is that the decision remains on the ground. Hence the exceptional concentration by the Russians, in recent days, of armored means, artillery and assault aviation for a classic land maneuver in the Donbass partly in the hands of the Ukrainians: Curtain of artillery fire then massive tank attack. The plains of Donbass lend themselves to such a maneuver. This time they will not underestimate their opponents who have demonstrated resilience, agility and redundancy and inflicted heavy losses on them.

Michel Goya, the military historianalso sees take shape of a form of combat based on massive fires in depth followed by concentrated attacks from ad hoc divisions.

#Russian convoy with T-80 and BMP-3 near Popasnaja, Luhansk region. #T80 #BMP3 #Luhansk #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/triWVc1BfI

— OSINTCentralEurope (@EuropeOsint) April 17, 2022

The Russian device is not yet complete since the command has made a special effort to ensure the support of the troops and to reinforce the logistics whose collapse in northern Ukraine has cost the attackers dearly. However, the Battle of Donbass has started well. A Russian breakthrough attempt is underway at from Yzum, towards Barvinkove and Sloviansk. Objective: to isolate five active Ukrainian brigades in a pocket. But the attackers would have been contained up to Dovhenke.

Once the Russian assault force has been fully assembled and its support in place, once the weather has been milder and therefore conducive to Russian air activity and artillery support, the attack on the Donbass will be launched.

Large #Russian convoy on the move towards #Kharkiv. Russians are taking convoy security more seriously and have MI-24’s flying escort over the convoy to likely protect against ATGM attacks. Some residents are seen waving Russian flags and cheering. Exact location is unknown. pic.twitter.com/AJ6JTX28CC

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) April 16, 2022

The Ukrainians, who are deploying ten active brigades, are taking advantage of this respite to strengthen themselves. They receive new equipment, certainly too slowly in their eyes and while the rate of consumption of ammunition and loss of equipment is higher than that of deliveries. They also improve the defense of urban bastions that Russian soldiers, as good heirs of the Red Army, could encircle and bludgeon. Unless they feel that the siege warfare (in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol) has cost them too much so far.